Agnia Grigas (nonresident Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council)

The geopolitics of energy is undergoing a profound transformation. New producers are reshaping supply dynamics, alternative energy sources are gaining ground, and shifting alliances are giving rise to fresh geopolitical tensions.

The United States has emerged as the world’s leading producer of both oil and natural gas, while India and China have become the dominant energy importers, increasingly influencing global markets. In response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Europe has accelerated efforts to reduce its dependence not only on Russian energy but on fossil fuels more broadly.

Now, under a second Trump administration, the U.S. is doubling down on its status as an energy superpower. This agenda is being leveraged to reshape international relationships—pressuring both allies and adversaries to align with American interests and counterbalancing the growing economic influence of emerging economies. With President Biden’s renewable energy goals sidelined, the U.S. and Europe no longer appear united in their energy vision, exposing additional strategic fractures in the transatlantic alliance.